Turkey sheepishly promised yesterday that it would not send troops into northern Iraq, unless there is a refugee crisis or a major threat to Turkish security. Western leaders – both pro- and anti-war – would do well to use all possible influence to ensure that the Turks stick to this pledge. Apart from the risk of yet more "friendly fire" incidents with another army in Iraq, the prospect of clashes between the Turks and Kurds is very real We do not need a second war. We do not need a second war. The Turkish chief of staff's reference to "our strategic ally the United States" will provoke hollow laughter in Washington. The tanks of the 21,000-strong 4th Infantry Division are currently at sea – and will not reach Kuwait until early next month – thanks to Ankara's decision not to allow US troops on Turkish soil. They had every right to refuse; 90 per cent of the population was opposed to war, and their leaders, unlike ours, chose not to overrule that But there will be a cost. US critics talk of the sentimental Islamicism and lack of foreign affairs experience of the tyro government.

Washington may well put pressure on its allies, Britain and Spain, to block Turkey's application to join the EU. The international community should beware kneejerk responses; the question of Turkey and the EU should be decided on other grounds. But that Turkey should stay its hand over the Kurds is in the interests of everyone.. At least 14 dead and 30 injured: this was the toll from two missiles that struck a market in a residential area of northern Baghdad yesterday, two American missiles gone astray.

Invaluable propaganda for Saddam Hussein and his regime, the graphic scenes of death and despair will also have brought home the brutal reality of war to every television viewer – and newspaper reader – around the world. First, they promised that great efforts would be made to minimise civilian casualties. This was to be an operation directed against the regime of Saddam Hussein, not against the people of Iraq; it was intended to liberate and not to conquer. Second, they expressed confidence that the war, once embarked upon, would soon be won.These undertakings doubtless helped to limit the anti-war rebellion in Parliament. They may also have softened at least some of the public hostility to the conflict once it had begun In fact, though, each contained a contradiction. If Iraq really constituted as deadly a threat to world security as the Prime Minister and others had warned, why were they so confident that a war could be swiftly won? And if the campaign proved to be harder and longer than had been hoped, if victory could only be won at the price of many casualties, could the imperative of sparing civilians really be honoured?Now, with the war a week old and casualties – including civilians – mounting, these questions need to be posed, even if they cannot fully be answered.It is already clear that the impression given by our politicians that the regime of Saddam could be removed swiftly and almost without bloodshed was at best wishful thinking and at worst a deliberate effort to delude The prospects of such an outcome have narrowed by the day.

If only Saddam had definitely been killed in the first "targeted strike", if the port of Umm Qasr had been handed to the US and British without a fight, if the people of Basra had spontaneously welcomed the forces as liberators, if they had risen against their Baath Party rulers... If only just one of those plans had been realised – but it was not.US, British and Australian forces are now having to fight their way against Iraqi resistance – both concentrated and sporadic – all the way to Baghdad. The battles at the strategic crossing points of the Euphrates at Nasiriyah and at Najaf have each left dozens of Iraqi dead and hundreds of wounded. Conservative figures for those killed in air-raids on Baghdad stand at around 100. The number of dead and wounded among the allied forces is infinitely smaller at fewer than 50 so far, but the numbers mount daily.The initial response to the lengthening casualty lists is likely to be stiffened resolve, on both sides. The Iraqi response to the yesterday's market explosion was outrage, not defection.