They would follow the pensions model currently espoused by the Government, in which everyone has second-tier provision to supplement their basic State pension.The time may soon come when, as with Individual Savings Plans, we can buy our protection through our local supermarket. For now, it may well be adopting a softly-softly approach to raising awareness of the protection deficit, but eventually the gloves will come off. Future welfare changes, while focusing on better targeting of those in real need, are likely to result in more means testing or taxation of benefits to assess that need.In response, insurers are developing policies offering more choice and a range of help services as well as financial benefits. Already some plans pay benefits where the State would pay nothing. Mostly too, insurance benefits are paid free of any tax - an area where the Government has generally become more rather than less generous in recent years.It is perhaps ironic that the pounds 64.70-a-week Incapacity Benefit is now taxed, while income protection insurance, which typically pays up to half your income or more, is not.The Adam Smith Institute believes we may all end up having our own personal welfare programmes. This is despite the recent introduction of a much tougher test that measures a claimant's ability to perform any work rather than just the work undertaken by them normally; an experienced graphic designer won't qualify if it can be shown they could be working as a car-park attendant.The problem for the Government is persuading those with the means to protect themselves that personal welfare safeguards are the way forward.

This is almost as much as the pounds 107bn now raised from income and corporation taxes.There are no guarantees of good health or a secure income at any age. One in 10 people under 45 report a long-standing illness or disability For the over-45s, the figure is one in four. Men are 18 times more likely to be off work due to illness for six months or more than they are to die before reaching the age of 65.Figures from the Department of Social Security show that the number of people claiming Incapacity Benefit is 1.75 million - three times the level in 1980-81. State benefits no longer provide a complete safety net - if, indeed, they ever did.

Incapacity Benefit, the main assistance for those with a long-term illness or disability, pays a top rate of just pounds 64.70 a week; and, since 1995, mortgage interest payments are no longer fully protected by the state.Benefit spending stands at around pounds 93bn a year, and is likely to reach pounds 100bn by 2000. Many believe the Green Paper signals a move away from a welfare state and towards personal welfare programmes. There is already a gap between what protection the Government will provide and what most people would need to maintain a reasonable standard of living, and that gap is set to widen. The Government's Green Paper on welfare reform, launched by Frank Field in March, has, as one of its success measures, a commitment to increasing the amount of your money going towards savings and insurance - without increasing the proportion borne by Government. The Lord Chancellor may not believe that DIY is appropriate for his wallpaper, but, elsewhere in Government, DIY is fast becoming attractive when it comes to welfare reform and protection insurance. If your investment falls in value, there is plenty of time for it to rise again.Grosvenor Financial Services (01491 414145); Whitechurch Securities (0117 9442266); Holden Meehan (0171 404 6442).