Rank, the leisure group which has failed to sparkle since Andrew Teare was drafted in as chief executive, could at last be on the verge of offering a little encouragement to a disillusioned stock market. Tomorrow it is expected to hold investment presentations on its Butlin's holiday camp off-shoot, a business still many believe entrenched in the hi-di-hi days of the 1950s. Rank has acknowledged Butlin's is past its sell-by date. Last month Nigel Turnbull, finance director, said: "People on social security are coming and finding they can stay cheaper than at home."Under its founder, Sir Billy Butlin, it transformed the British seaside holiday, prompting a host of imitators. But the holiday camp concept has fallen victim to the holiday centres of Center Parcs and continental package deals.It is expected that the Rank revamp, which also embraces its Haven holiday camps, will offer a complete new look with a dramatic upgrading of facilities. That is not to say the whole project is misguided, for that is a separate issue; it is to say that the timing could hardly be worse.In the third time zone, East Asia, the bumps have become obvious in recent weeks.

But it is also a question of business strategy - and since space of mind devoted to making ready for EMU is space of mind not available for anything else, in the short-term the competitive impact on European business is entirely negative. This is partly a question of fixing systems - just at the time when computers have cope with the millennium bug. Whatever view one takes on the wisdom of the project, EMU will dominate European markets for the next 18 months. Though non-combatants like the UK may feel "over-EMUed" there will be no escape from devoting resources to the practical issues it raises.So whether they like it or not, anyone wanting to do business in the rest of Europe will have to pull resources away from running the rest of the business to making sure it is EMU-capable. But the recovery is fragile, and there will be no material decline in unemployment in the main continental economies during the next 18 months.The plan for the single currency imposes an additional layer of uncertainty. But of course it may not.On the Continent the issue is different because instead of there being too little slack in the economy there is too much. (Leave aside the UK, which is a special case.) The French and German economies are now growing, and after renewed recession this year the Italian one seems to be moving too.

It all may turn out fine - a bumpy year but not a dreadful one, followed by renewed growth in 1998 and 1999. Once it does, the test then will be how well the real economy withstands the financial pressure of rising interest rates and falling share prices. No one can see in detail what will happen, but clearly something disagreeable will take place. Since even a modest reversal of fortune is not priced into equity markets at the moment, there is clearly going to be some sort of market reversal in the next few months, most probably before the end of this year, almost certainly before the middle of the next one. Or to put the same fundamental point from a slightly different perspective, that while the trade cycle may indeed be more muted, it still exists.

The only possible justification for the present level of the US stock market is that there has been a sea-change in the performance of the economy.But it is equally plausible that while the economy has indeed lifted its performance a gear, there is still a serious rebuff ahead. But that is just convenient shorthand, for it is not a simple question of whether the economic cycle has become much more muted, or whether the vigour of the new service industries will enable sustained non-inflationary growth to carry on for the foreseeable future.Clearly some things have changed: for example it has been possible to push unemployment down much further than anyone had expected without giving rise to wage inflation. And in the East Asian time zone the issue the clear new issue is whether the present currency and market turmoil heralds something more serious in the real economy of the countries concerned. In the coming weeks expect these three themes to keep recurring, so it might be helpful at this stage to set out some checklists for each of the three zones - things to watch for, things to worry about.As far as the US economy is concerned, the analysts fall into two broad groups: those who believe that this time things really are different; and those who think nothing much has changed. In continental Europe the coming months will be dominated by the progress towards the single currency and the difficulties this will impose on the main continental economies, at least in the short term. We live in a connected world, for the world economy is more of a single entity than ever before in human history. But as people in the three main economic zones look forward, they will look forward with different concerns. In North America the main economic issue is whether the US economy really has stepped into a new period of sustainable, steady growth or whether there is another recession somewhere ahead.

It is the one moment in the calendar when there is always the sharpest transition of mood - a transition this year made yet sharper by the dreadful news from Paris. It is different because the holidays are over and though of course economic life continues the business and financial communities suddenly begin to focus again on the trends of the coming year. It's September and the mood is suddenly different from the mood of August. The shares were riding at 241.5p last year; they rose 3p to 45.5p on the restructuring.. But Standard Chartered perked up 6p to 832.5p.Shield Diagnostic rose 17.5p to 575p on suggestions of European presentations and ML Laboratories, up 4p to 171.5p, was helped by investment meetings.SFI, the old Surrey Free Inns, was little changed at 123.5p in the new slimline form and the JD Wetherspoon pubs chain firmed to 1,417.5p, a peak, ahead of Thursday's results which should show profits around pounds 18m against pounds 13.1m.Plasmon, which caught the market on the hop with a profit warning, is backing out of volume production of CD discs. Its shares rose 9p to 240.5p.The Far East fall-out continued to weigh on giant banker HSBC, off 10p at 1,910p. P&O enjoyed a 5p gain to 655p as HSBC talked about a possible break-up valuation.General Electric Co improved 12p to 393.5p on reports Sir Roger Hurn, chief of Smiths Industries, will take over as chairman when Lord Prior retires next year.Building shares drew some support from house builder Persimmon which checked in with more than doubled six months profits.