As the EU grows to include Bulgaria and Romania, expect the trade relationship with Russia to help the EU even more.Finally, new members bring new ideas. And they have not had the subsidies that East Germany received. They had to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, with the result that they now have a much more market-oriented economy than most of the eurozone.As a result of broadly sensible economic policies, the region is consistently growing at around 4 per cent a year, more than double that of the eurozone.That will continue for two reasons. One is that the wall of investment funds flooding into the region will continue for another decade at least. That will bring expertise and deliver exports: the know-how of building and running a car plant as well as the distribution network across Europe for selling the cars.The other is proximity to Russia. We have been so attuned to thinking of Russia as an economic basket case that we forget that it is growing even faster than its former empire.
Its success at present rests on the narrow economic base of energy exports, but on any rational view of world economic development over the next decade, energy and other natural resources are the key sectors to be in.Here in Britain we catch a glimpse of Russian wealth as buyers of football clubs and expensive houses in Kensington. Having had to live with Soviet-imposed economic planning and seen what it does, they have been very clear not to make that sort of mistake again. So they have in general established flexible regulatory systems, given sensible rather than over-lavish investment incentives, and allowed market signals to dictate how their economies should develop. There was no incentive for East German society to create its own new, flexible economy. It was not in charge of itself.The position of the new members is utterly different They have competitive exchange rates As a result there has been a flood of investment.
You can see the results on our streets: Volkswagen's takeover of Skoda has ended all those Skoda jokes, turning the company into one of the most admired manufacturers in Europe. Right now Toyota and Peugeot are planning to invest $1.8bn in a new car assembly plant.The new members also have charge of their own destiny. Wage levels were too high relative to productivity, so there was virtually no inward commercial investment apart from some politically-driven projects from West German companies.The other was to impose the West German system - legislation, standards, business practices - on what had become a foreign country. The process of reunification, at an economic level, has been scarred by two huge mistakes.One was merging the two German marks at the wrong rate - a one-for-one exchange. Politically that may have been necessary, but it meant that East Germany could never compete with West Germany, or indeed any other EU member. But it will give the entire continent a boost, and a most welcome one at that.
